Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters.
Identifieur interne : 000389 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000388; suivant : 000390Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters.
Auteurs : John P A. Ioannidis [États-Unis] ; Cathrine Axfors [Suède] ; Despina G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis [États-Unis]Source :
- Environmental research [ 1096-0953 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- mortality : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Aged, Betacoronavirus, COVID-19, Cross-Sectional Studies, Humans, Middle Aged, Pandemics, Risk, SARS-CoV-2.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To provide estimates of the relative rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, the absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level during the first epidemic wave, and the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic.
ELIGIBLE DATA
Cross-sectional survey of countries and US states with at least 800 COVID-19 deaths as of April 24, 2020 and with information on the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and 13 US states (California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania). We also examined available data on COVID-19 deaths in people with age <65 and no underlying diseases.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES
Proportion of COVID-19 deaths in people <65 years old; relative mortality rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of June 17, 2020; absolute COVID-19 mortality rate expressed as equivalent of mortality rate from driving a motor vehicle.
RESULTS
Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5-11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3-22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106-483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7-3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico.
CONCLUSIONS
People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.
DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2020.109890
PubMed: 32846654
PubMed Central: PMC7327471
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
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Contopoulos-Ioannidis</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32846654</idno><idno type="pmid">32846654</idno><idno type="doi">10.1016/j.envres.2020.109890</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7327471</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000383</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000383</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000383</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000383</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000383</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters.</title><author><name sortKey="Ioannidis, John P A" sort="Ioannidis, John P A" uniqKey="Ioannidis J" first="John P A" last="Ioannidis">John P A. Ioannidis</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, and Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, USA; Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, CA, USA. Electronic address: jioannid@stanford.edu.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, and Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, USA; Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, CA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Axfors, Cathrine" sort="Axfors, Cathrine" uniqKey="Axfors C" first="Cathrine" last="Axfors">Cathrine Axfors</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Suède</country><wicri:regionArea>Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université d'Uppsala</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Uppsala</settlement><region nuts="1">Svealand</region><region nuts="1">East Middle Sweden</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Contopoulos Ioannidis, Despina G" sort="Contopoulos Ioannidis, Despina G" uniqKey="Contopoulos Ioannidis D" first="Despina G" last="Contopoulos-Ioannidis">Despina G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:affiliation>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Californie</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Environmental research</title><idno type="eISSN">1096-0953</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>COVID-19 (MeSH)</term><term>Coronavirus Infections (mortality)</term><term>Cross-Sectional Studies (MeSH)</term><term>Humans (MeSH)</term><term>Middle Aged (MeSH)</term><term>Pandemics (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral (mortality)</term><term>Risk (MeSH)</term><term>SARS-CoV-2 (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="KwdFr" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte d'âge moyen (MeSH)</term><term>Betacoronavirus (MeSH)</term><term>Humains (MeSH)</term><term>Infections à coronavirus (mortalité)</term><term>Pandémies (MeSH)</term><term>Pneumopathie virale (mortalité)</term><term>Risque (MeSH)</term><term>Sujet âgé (MeSH)</term><term>Études transversales (MeSH)</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortality" xml:lang="en"><term>Coronavirus Infections</term><term>Pneumonia, Viral</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" qualifier="mortalité" xml:lang="fr"><term>Infections à coronavirus</term><term>Pneumopathie virale</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="en"><term>Aged</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>COVID-19</term><term>Cross-Sectional Studies</term><term>Humans</term><term>Middle Aged</term><term>Pandemics</term><term>Risk</term><term>SARS-CoV-2</term></keywords><keywords scheme="MESH" xml:lang="fr"><term>Adulte d'âge moyen</term><term>Betacoronavirus</term><term>Humains</term><term>Pandémies</term><term>Risque</term><term>Sujet âgé</term><term>Études transversales</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>OBJECTIVE</b></p><p>To provide estimates of the relative rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, the absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level during the first epidemic wave, and the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>ELIGIBLE DATA</b></p><p>Cross-sectional survey of countries and US states with at least 800 COVID-19 deaths as of April 24, 2020 and with information on the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and 13 US states (California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania). We also examined available data on COVID-19 deaths in people with age <65 and no underlying diseases.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES</b></p><p>Proportion of COVID-19 deaths in people <65 years old; relative mortality rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of June 17, 2020; absolute COVID-19 mortality rate expressed as equivalent of mortality rate from driving a motor vehicle.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5-11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3-22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106-483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7-3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b></p><p>People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="MEDLINE" IndexingMethod="Curated" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32846654</PMID><DateCompleted><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>01</Day></DateCompleted><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>12</Month><Day>18</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1096-0953</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>188</Volume><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Environmental research</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Environ Res</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>109890</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="pii" ValidYN="Y">S0013-9351(20)30785-4</ELocationID><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1016/j.envres.2020.109890</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="OBJECTIVE">To provide estimates of the relative rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, the absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level during the first epidemic wave, and the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="ELIGIBLE DATA">Cross-sectional survey of countries and US states with at least 800 COVID-19 deaths as of April 24, 2020 and with information on the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and 13 US states (California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania). We also examined available data on COVID-19 deaths in people with age <65 and no underlying diseases.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES">Proportion of COVID-19 deaths in people <65 years old; relative mortality rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of June 17, 2020; absolute COVID-19 mortality rate expressed as equivalent of mortality rate from driving a motor vehicle.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS">Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5-11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3-22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106-483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7-3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS">People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Ioannidis</LastName><ForeName>John P A</ForeName><Initials>JPA</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, and Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University School of Medicine, USA; Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, CA, USA. Electronic address: jioannid@stanford.edu.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Axfors</LastName><ForeName>Cathrine</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford, CA, USA; Department of Women's and Children's Health, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Contopoulos-Ioannidis</LastName><ForeName>Despina G</ForeName><Initials>DG</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType><PublicationType UI="D013485">Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>07</Month><Day>01</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Netherlands</Country><MedlineTA>Environ Res</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>0147621</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>0013-9351</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><MeshHeadingList><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000368" MajorTopicYN="N">Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000073640" MajorTopicYN="N">Betacoronavirus</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000086382" MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D018352" MajorTopicYN="N">Coronavirus Infections</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D003430" MajorTopicYN="N">Cross-Sectional Studies</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D006801" MajorTopicYN="N">Humans</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D008875" MajorTopicYN="N">Middle Aged</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D058873" MajorTopicYN="N">Pandemics</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D011024" MajorTopicYN="N">Pneumonia, Viral</DescriptorName><QualifierName UI="Q000401" MajorTopicYN="Y">mortality</QualifierName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D012306" MajorTopicYN="N">Risk</DescriptorName></MeshHeading><MeshHeading><DescriptorName UI="D000086402" MajorTopicYN="N">SARS-CoV-2</DescriptorName></MeshHeading></MeshHeadingList><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Age</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Mortality</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Risk</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="Y">Underlying diseases</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate 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IdType="pubmed">32259190</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Suède</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Californie</li><li>East Middle Sweden</li><li>Svealand</li></region><settlement><li>Uppsala</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université d'Uppsala</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Californie"><name sortKey="Ioannidis, John P A" sort="Ioannidis, John P A" uniqKey="Ioannidis J" first="John P A" last="Ioannidis">John P A. Ioannidis</name></region><name sortKey="Contopoulos Ioannidis, Despina G" sort="Contopoulos Ioannidis, Despina G" uniqKey="Contopoulos Ioannidis D" first="Despina G" last="Contopoulos-Ioannidis">Despina G. Contopoulos-Ioannidis</name></country><country name="Suède"><region name="Svealand"><name sortKey="Axfors, Cathrine" sort="Axfors, Cathrine" uniqKey="Axfors C" first="Cathrine" last="Axfors">Cathrine Axfors</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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